Climate variability is a critical driver of Multi-Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) losses in the United States. This analysis demonstrates the capability of the TERRA ClimateExplorer to identify predictable climate patterns and assess the risk of elevated gross loss ratios for winter wheat production for upcoming harvest seasons.

 

Winter Wheat Production in the United States

 

 

Winter wheat is a major crop in the United States and represents a significant share of crop insurance exposure. In many Midwest and Southern states, winter wheat accounts for more than 20% of total gross liability and premium under yield-based and revenue-based insurance products. In some states, such as Oklahoma, its contribution can even be 50% (see Figure 1). Most winter wheat production and associated gross premiums are concentrated in the Great Plains region (see Figure 2).

 

Regional Planting Variability and Winter Wheat Development

Winter wheat planting dates vary dramatically by region and year, ranging from mid-September in the western Great Plains to early December in the Southeast (Figure 3). This variability is critical for predictive modeling: weather variables cannot be evaluated using fixed calendar dates across all regions and years. Instead, models must reference weather conditions relative to each county’s actual planting date to capture the true risk during the establishment period.

 

After planting, seedlings overwinter in a dormant state. Exposure to cold temperatures for a sufficient period—a process called vernalization—is essential for winter wheat to transition from vegetative growth to reproductive development and flowering in the spring. Without adequate vernalization, yields are significantly reduced.

 

Prediction of End of Season Gross Loss Ratios with Winter Soil Moisture

Soil moisture at winter wheat planting significantly impacts crop yields and insurance losses. In this article, we quantify how planting-time soil moisture affects end-of-season insurance losses for winter wheat. We combine USDA planting progress data with daily soil moisture indicators from TERRA Climate Explorer to identify actual county-level planting dates and capture field conditions during the critical crop establishment period for each location and year.

 

Figure 4 shows counties where soil moisture at planting has a statistically significant impact on final loss ratios. The map reveals a clear East-West divide:

Western counties (drier regions): Higher soil moisture at planting improves yield potential, leading to lower loss ratios.

Eastern counties (wetter regions): Higher soil moisture at planting increases crop failure risk, leading to higher loss ratios.

This pattern reflects different growing conditions across winter wheat regions – what benefits crops in the drier West can harm crops in the more humid East.

 

Figure 5 shows the relationship in Western counties, where insufficient soil moisture in the second month after planting substantially increases crop failure risk and final loss ratios. Figure 6 reveals the opposite pattern in Eastern counties: elevated soil moisture during this same period increases the likelihood of crop losses.

 

The Western cluster with negative correlations (purple in Figure 4) concentrates in the Great Plains, which accounts for a substantial share of U.S. winter wheat insurance premiums (Figure 2). This geographic concentration makes soil moisture monitoring in this region critical for insurance risk management.

 

How TERRA ClimateExplorer Strengthens Your 2026 Underwriting Decisions?

Winter wheat insurance outcomes can be predicted with high accuracy within weeks of planting. TERRA ClimateExplorer delivers daily, county-level soil moisture data in near-real time, and in combination with USDA weekly planting progress reports, it enables early risk assessment and more responsive portfolio management during the critical early-season period.

This capability provides direct value to US crop insurers for fund allocation of winter wheat policies and to reinsurers, it enhances the risk evaluation of their clients’ crop portfolios.

 

Winter wheat planting for the 2026 harvest year is now complete in most counties (Figure 7). Using TERRA ClimateExplorer data (Figure 8), we observe favorable soil moisture conditions across the core winter wheat region in Southwestern Kansas, substantially reducing the risk of crop failure for the 2025/2026 season; however, Northern Texas shows soil moisture significantly below average, elevating insurance payout risk if dry conditions persist through the critical establishment period.

 

Conclusion

Using only basic statistical methods and TERRA ClimateExplorer soil moisture data, we achieve highly accurate predictions of winter wheat gross losses across US counties. This simple approach demonstrates that timely, high-resolution climate data is more valuable than complex modeling for early-season risk assessment. Current conditions in early December 2025 indicate elevated risk for Northern Texas if below-average soil moisture persists through the critical winter establishment period.

 

 

Want to run your own crop or weather analysis?

With the #TERRAClimateExplorer, accessing agro-meteorological insights has never been easier. The #TERRAClimateExplorer is a web-based solution that enables you to gather, monitor, and visualize historical and real-time weather and remote sensing data for any location worldwide.

For developers and researchers, our API allows you to collect this data directly using any programming language, enabling seamless integration into your existing workflows and applications

Say goodbye to cumbersome processes and hello to streamlined efficiency. Experience the power of simplicity with the #TERRAClimateExplorer – where valuable weather data is just a few clicks away.

Contact us at info@terra-ms.com if you want to find out more, and subscribe to our newsletter to ensure you don’t miss any of our posts and articles.

#TERRAModelingServices